Analyzing Apple’s Intentions: Will the Vision Pro Replace the iPhone?

After much speculation and fanfare, Apple finally debuted its first-ever mixed reality headset, the Vision Pro at the 2023 Apple Worldwide Developers Conference. The headset, which is set to retail at $3,499, has been heralded as a spatial computer that blends digital content with the physical world. Is this our first glimpse at the device that will replace the iPhone?

Apple CEO, Tim Cook, has been buoyant about the innovation, which is undoubtedly Apple’s most ambitious new product since the 2007 launch of the iPhone. 

“Today marks the beginning of a new era for computing. Just as the Mac introduced us to personal computing, and iPhone introduced us to mobile computing, Apple Vision Pro introduces us to spatial computing,” Cook explained. “Built upon decades of Apple innovation, Vision Pro is years ahead and unlike anything created before — with a revolutionary new input system and thousands of groundbreaking innovations. It unlocks incredible experiences for our users and exciting new opportunities for our developers.”

With the ability to create virtual interactive experiences, digital desktops, and immersive entertainment experiences, there’s little doubting the power of the Vision Pro. But could it really challenge the dominance of the smartphone as we know it? 

Apple certainly has previous when it comes to rendering its own flagship products redundant. The tech giants had been a market leader in portable music players with the iPod until the iPhone became sophisticated enough to play music on the go from the cloud. 

Now the Californian company has its sights set firmly on a mixed reality industry that’s yet to earn mainstream adoption despite many attempts in the past.

Facing the Challenge of a Skeptical Market

There have been many attempts at bringing reality technology into mainstream adoption over the years. Recently, in 2013, virtual reality experienced a hype cycle that stemmed from Oculus’ Kickstarter campaign, and the development of Google Glass.  

Later, Microsoft HoloLens would be added to the mix but no virtual or augmented reality devices have ever captured the imagination of the public upon their eventual release. 

This indicates that there’s still a gap between the hype cycle of new devices and the reality of users following up on their interest by making purchases. 

“I think a big part of it comes down to the fact that often plays like these get sold as new ambitious experiences, which often sends them far afield to where modern-day use cases actually are,” said Ernie Smith, a technology journalist and author at Tedium.

While Smith is wary of the false dawns of reality devices in the past, he acknowledges that Apple’s more pragmatic unveiling of the product may help to showcase it as a more practical tool for users. “Showing Excel might seem a little boring, but it sets a baseline for what this could be that doesn’t aim for the rafters,” Smith explains.

Although the task of overcoming the disappointments of other reality headset releases in the past is a major challenge for Apple, the challenge of the technology overtaking the smartphone as we know it is another matter entirely. 

Challenging the Dominance of Smartphones Through Immersive Experiences

While AR/VR headsets have struggled in the past to win over customers, it’s fair to say that none have come close to the technological prowess of the Vision Pro. Not only is Apple’s headset far more immersive but there’s no need for external controls to operate the device. 

Instead, users control the device with their eyes, hands, and voice for navigation, selection, and dictation respectively. Furthermore, early evidence suggests that the eye-tracking system is highly impressive for a first-of-its-kind product. 

At the core of the Vision Pro is a dual-chip design, featuring an M2 and R1 chip where the later processes input from 12 cameras, five sensors, and six microphones to deliver content in a manner that can’t be matched. By comparison, the Apple iPhone 14 Pro Max pales in comparison with a front and rear camera and an A16 bionic chipset. 

Apple’s 10-Year Succession Plan

According to reputable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple’s strategy will ultimately involve replacing the iPhone with a later incarnation of an augmented reality headset, or another device based on the reality tools accessible in the next 10 years. 

This will no doubt cause some anxiety among Apple’s leaders. After all, the iPhone’s net sales amount to over half of the company’s total revenue–making a succession plan a largely hazardous pursuit. 

It’s clear that Apple’s Vision Pro is the first major release as the firm seeks to adopt new technologies to progress beyond the age of the iPhone, but at a cost of $3,499, the current headset is likely to be an experiment for gauging public interest.  

Although the entry costs are unlikely to render the iPhone obsolete in the coming years, rumors that a more affordable augmented reality device coming soon from Apple are persisting, and could help to make reality technology more affordable for users. 

With this in mind, it’s likely that the evolution of the technology will pave the way for falling prices and lead to cheaper headsets for mainstream consumers when Apple’s 10-year succession plan kicks into gear. 

Co-Existence is a Safe Bet

For the time being, it’s far more likely that Apple will welcome the Vision Pro as a device that works alongside the iPhone, with handsets on-hand to bolster the capabilities of the headset. 

However, it’s not only the smartphone that could be replaced by the later incarnations of the Vision Pro. The device can provide immersive cinematic experiences for wearers who can watch what they want through a streaming app, adjust the picture size, change the volume without disturbing others around them, and access a whole host of personalization options all through gesture or voice commands. 

This can spell danger for televisions, and with high-end models ranging into the $1000s consumers may begin to see an opportunity to adopt reality headsets as a comprehensive entertainment and communication system instead of cluttering their homes with other expensive hardware. 

Though at this stage it can be tricky to anticipate how the Vision Pro will be received. While we’re looking at the significance of mixed reality and spatial computing in Apple’s release, it will be the enthusiasm of these early adopters that could set the bar for how the industry will develop.